Nifty & Sensex Monday February 24, 2026: What to Expect After Friday’s Recovery — Gift Nifty Signals Positive Open
By Senior Indian Equity Markets Analyst · February 21, 2026 · 7 Min Read
Indian equity markets staged a solid Friday recovery — Nifty closed at 25,571.25 (+0.46%) and Sensex at 82,814.71 (+0.38%) — reversing Thursday’s sharp selloff that wiped ₹7 lakh crore in single-session market cap. Now investors face Monday with Gift Nifty indicating a positive 90-point gap-up opening near 25,661, but lingering US-Iran tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty, and elevated crude oil prices create conflicting technical and sentiment signals. So what should traders and investors expect when Indian markets open on Monday, February 24, 2026 — continuation of Friday’s bounce or renewed selling pressure testing the critical 25,400-25,250 support zone?
Friday February 20 Market Recap: What Actually Happened
Understanding Monday’s likely direction requires analyzing Friday’s price action, sector performance, and the macro developments that shaped investor sentiment heading into the weekend.
| Friday Market Summary | Nifty 50 | Sensex |
|---|---|---|
| Opening | Flat to slightly negative | Flat to slightly negative |
| Intraday High | 25,663.55 | ~83,100 (approx) |
| Closing | 25,571.25 | 82,814.71 |
| Change (Points) | +116.90 | +316.57 |
| Change (%) | +0.46% | +0.38% |
| Previous Close | 25,454.35 | 82,498.14 |
| Weekly Gain | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| Market Cap Recovered | — | Partial recovery from ₹7L Cr loss |
What Worked on Friday:
- PSU Banks: Led gains, Bank Nifty recovered half of Thursday’s losses, closing above 21-day EMA at 60,380
- Metals: Tata Steel (+1.3%), NTPC (+2.7%), strength from infrastructure and power demand
- FMCG: HUL (+1.7%), defensive buying as uncertainty persists
- Capital Goods: L&T (+2.4%), Power Grid (+1.3%) on infrastructure optimism
What Didn’t Work:
- IT Sector: Down 1% — Infosys (-1.28%), Tech Mahindra (-1.75%), HCL Tech (-0.8%) on AI disruption fears from Wall Street
- Telecom: Bharti Airtel (-0.8%) weakness continued
- Select Midcaps: Newgen Software (-6.8%), Godfrey Phillips (-4.4%) on stock-specific negatives
Broader Market Performance:
- Nifty Midcap: +0.5% to +1.6% (mixed reports)
- Nifty Smallcap: Marginally negative to +2.5% (conflicting data suggests volatility)
- India VIX: Declined from elevated levels but remains above 19, indicating lingering nervousness
Gift Nifty & Global Cues for Monday February 24, 2026
Gift Nifty — the Singapore-traded Nifty futures that provide pre-market direction — closed Friday session at 25,661, up 256 points from Indian Nifty close, indicating a gap-up opening of approximately 90 points on Monday morning.
| Global Market Cues (Weekend Close) | Status | Impact on Monday |
|---|---|---|
| Gift Nifty | 25,661 (+256 points) | Positive opening likely |
| US Markets (Friday Close) | S&P 500: +0.62%, Nasdaq: +1.05%, Dow: +0.24% | Moderately positive |
| Asian Markets Trend | Mixed — cautious on US-Iran tensions | Neutral to slightly negative |
| Crude Oil | Elevated near recent highs | Negative for India (import dependent) |
| US-Iran Tensions | Ongoing, no major escalation | Risk-off sentiment persists |
| Fed Rate Cut Probability | Market pricing 60 bps by year-end | Supportive but uncertain timeline |
| US GDP Q4 Data (Released Fri) | Expected slowdown to 3% from 4.4% | Mixed — slower growth but supports Fed cuts |
| India Flash PMI (Feb) | Accelerated to 3-month high | Positive — strong manufacturing |
Key Takeaway for Monday: The 90-point Gift Nifty premium suggests Monday will open positive near 25,660-25,670 levels. However, whether that opening gap sustains depends on three factors:
- Follow-through buying: If PSU banks and metals continue strength, the bounce extends
- IT sector stabilization: Friday’s 1% IT decline needs to stop bleeding
- Global headline risk: Any weekend escalation in US-Iran tensions could reverse sentiment instantly
Nifty Technical Levels for Monday February 24, 2026
Technical analysts have identified specific support and resistance levels that will determine whether Monday’s gap-up opening converts into sustained rally or fails at resistance.
| Nifty 50 Levels | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate | 25,400 – 25,450 | 25,675 (50-day EMA) |
| Strong Support | 25,300 – 25,250 | 25,800 – 25,850 |
| Critical Support | 25,050 – 25,000 | 26,000 (psychological) |
| Breakdown Level | 24,900 (leads to 24,700) | 26,340 (52-week high) |
| 200-Day EMA | ~25,250 (long-term support) | — |
Expert Technical Views for Monday:
Bajaj Broking: “Nifty formed a bullish candle with upper shadow, indicating bounce from lows but supply at higher zones. Currently trading below 21, 50, and 100-day EMAs. Next strong support near 200-day EMA around 25,250. Immediate resistance at 25,675 aligns with 50-day EMA.”
Choice FinX: “Nifty closed decisively above crucial 25,650 level, confirming breakout from key resistance zone. Weekly RSI at 55.99 suggests moderate bullish momentum with scope for upside without overbought conditions.”
Replete Equities: “The 25,200-25,050 belt is now an important demand zone. As long as Nifty holds above this area on closing basis, consolidation can continue with attempts towards 25,450-25,600. Clean break below 25,050 invites deeper profit-booking towards 24,900 and below.”
Strategy for Monday:
- Gap-up opening at 25,660: Take profits if immediate resistance at 25,675-25,700 is not broken convincingly
- Sustains above 25,675: Momentum can push toward 25,800-25,850 zone
- Falls below 25,450: Expect retest of 25,300-25,250 critical support
- Breaks 25,250: Bearish signal — exit longs, targets shift to 25,050 and 24,900
Bank Nifty Outlook for Monday
Bank Nifty showed relative strength Friday, recovering nearly half of Thursday’s losses and holding above its 21-day EMA at 60,380 — primarily driven by PSU banking stocks.
| Bank Nifty Levels | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Key Support | 60,000 – 59,800 | 60,500 (immediate) |
| Strong Support | 59,400 – 59,100 | 61,000 |
| Breakdown Level | 58,500 (bulls losing control) | 61,400 – 61,750 |
| All-Time High | — | 61,764.85 (recent) |
Expert View: “Bank Nifty displayed relative strength, pulling back from lows while holding above 21-day EMA. Index likely to trade within broad range of 60,000-61,750 as long as it sustains above key averages. Nevertheless, Bank Nifty continues trading below 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, indicating overhead supply and broader trend not yet decisively bullish.”
Monday Strategy for Bank Nifty:
- Opening above 60,500: Fresh bullish momentum toward 61,000-61,400
- Holding 60,000-60,200: Consolidation likely, selective PSU bank strength
- Breaking 59,800: Cautious — retest of 59,400 probable
- Below 59,400: Bears take control, targets shift to 58,500
Events & Catalysts for the Week Ahead (Feb 24-28, 2026)
Beyond Monday’s technical setup, several events during the week will influence medium-term direction and create intraday volatility.
IPO Activity (Starting Monday Feb 24):
- Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions: ₹3,100 Cr issue (renewable energy sector)
- Shree Ram Twistex: ₹110 Cr
- PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery: ₹380 Cr
- Omnitech Engineering: ₹583 Cr
Impact: Heavy IPO calendar will absorb ₹4,173 crore liquidity from secondary markets, creating selling pressure in small/midcaps as investors book profits to subscribe.
Macro Data Watch:
- No major domestic data releases Monday
- US GDP data already digested (released Friday)
- Crude oil inventory data midweek could move energy stocks
FII/DII Activity:
- FIIs have been net sellers for weeks — any reversal bullish
- DIIs continue absorbing FII selling — sustainability key question
- Monitor daily FII/DII data for sentiment shift signals
Corporate Earnings:
- Earnings season largely concluded
- Focus shifts to management commentary and FY27 guidance
- Any major corporate announcements could create stock-specific moves
What to Expect: Three Scenarios for Monday
Scenario 1: Gap-Up Sustained Rally (40% Probability)
- Opening: 25,660-25,680
- Move: Breaks and sustains above 25,675 resistance
- Drivers: Gift Nifty strength, PSU banks continue momentum, IT stabilizes
- Targets: 25,750 → 25,800 → 25,850
- Strategy: Buy on dips to 25,620-25,650 with stop at 25,570
Scenario 2: Gap-Up Fade (35% Probability)
- Opening: 25,650-25,670
- Move: Opens strong but selling at resistance, closes near 25,500
- Drivers: Profit booking at 25,675-25,700 resistance, global cues deteriorate
- Targets: 25,550 → 25,500 → 25,450
- Strategy: Sell rallies to 25,670-25,690, book profits in bounces
Scenario 3: Gap-Down or Flat Opening (25% Probability)
- Opening: 25,520-25,550 (Gift Nifty strength fades overnight)
- Move: Tests 25,450 support, potential breakdown to 25,300
- Drivers: Weekend geopolitical escalation, Asian market weakness
- Targets: 25,400 → 25,300 → 25,250
- Strategy: Avoid fresh longs, wait for 25,250 support test
Most Likely Outcome: Gap-up opening near 25,660 followed by consolidation between 25,600-25,700 range as market digests Friday’s recovery and awaits clearer global/domestic cues.
Key Takeaways for Monday February 24, 2026
→ Nifty closed Friday at 25,571.25 (+0.46%) and Sensex at 82,814.71 (+0.38%) — recovering from Thursday’s sharp selloff that erased ₹7 lakh crore market cap in single session.
→ Gift Nifty at 25,661 indicates positive gap-up opening of approximately 90 points Monday morning — opening likely near 25,660-25,670 range.
→ Critical technical level is 25,675 resistance (50-day EMA) — sustaining above this converts gap-up into sustained rally toward 25,800-25,850, failure leads to fade back to 25,500-25,450.
→ Bank Nifty holding above 21-day EMA at 60,380 shows relative strength — PSU banking sector driving bounce, but overhead resistance at 60,500-61,000 zone caps immediate upside.
→ US markets closed positive (S&P +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.05%) but US-Iran tensions, elevated crude oil, and Fed rate cut uncertainty create mixed global sentiment — any weekend escalation could reverse Monday’s positive opening instantly.
→ IPO calendar absorbs ₹4,173 Cr liquidity starting Monday — Clean Max Enviro (₹3,100 Cr) leads heavy issuance week creating selling pressure in secondary markets as investors book profits to subscribe.
This article does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investment decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Markets involve risk of loss.
Data sourced from publicly available information as of February 20-21, 2026. Sources include: NSE India, BSE India, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Business Standard, INVC News, Bajaj Broking, Choice FinX, Replete Equities, 5paisa, Equitymaster, EquityBulls, various market analysts and commentators.
