Bank Nifty Monday February 24, 2026: Trading at 61,172 on Expiry Day — Support at 60,380, Resistance at 61,700
By Senior Indian Equity Markets and Derivatives Trading Analyst · February 24, 2026 · 9 Min Read
Bank Nifty enters Monday, February 24, 2026 at 61,172 — the critical expiry day for February monthly contracts after staging a strong 432-point recovery (+0.71%) on Friday from Thursday’s brutal 811-point selloff. The index sits precariously between immediate support at 60,380-60,500 (20-day EMA zone) and formidable resistance at 61,400-61,700 (all-time high of 61,764.85 supply zone), setting up a volatile consolidation session where theta decay will be extreme and pin risk around max pain levels will dominate price action. With PSU banks showing relative strength while private bank heavyweights like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank remain under FII selling pressure, Monday’s expiry day presents a classic high-risk, high-reward setup for options traders. So what should traders expect when Bank Nifty opens Monday morning — continuation of Friday’s recovery toward 61,500+ or reversal back toward 60,000 support?
Bank Nifty Friday Close: The Recovery That Sets Up Monday’s Battle
Understanding Monday’s likely trajectory requires analyzing Friday’s price action, option chain positioning, and the technical levels that will govern today’s expiry-driven volatility.
| Bank Nifty Friday Summary | Data (Feb 21, 2026) |
|---|---|
| Friday Close | 61,172.00 |
| Daily Change | +432.45 (+0.71%) |
| Weekly Close | Strong recovery from Thursday crash |
| Intraday High Friday | ~61,300 (approx) |
| Intraday Low Friday | ~60,850 (approx) |
| All-Time High | 61,764.85 (recent) |
| Distance from ATH | -592.85 (-0.96%) |
| Key Support (20-day EMA) | 60,380 – 60,500 |
| Immediate Resistance | 61,400 – 61,700 |
| RSI | ~60 (constructive momentum) |
| Position | Above 10-day & 20-day EMAs |
What Happened Friday:
Bank Nifty staged a textbook technical bounce, recovering nearly 50% of Thursday’s devastating 811-point (-1.32%) loss that was triggered by US-Iran geopolitical tensions and broad market risk-off sentiment. The Friday recovery was led by PSU banking stocks — SBI, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank — all closing 1-2% higher as value buyers emerged after the panic selling.
However, private banking heavyweights showed mixed performance:
- HDFC Bank: Marginal gains, still under FII selling pressure
- ICICI Bank: Flat to slightly negative, facing deposit growth concerns
- Kotak Mahindra Bank: Underperformance continues amid management transition
The index closed at 61,172 — just 28 points below Friday’s intraday high near 61,200 — signaling that buyers defended the 20-day EMA support zone at 60,380-60,500 and regained control into the weekend. That Friday close above 61,000 is psychologically significant heading into Monday’s expiry.
Monday February 24: Why Expiry Day Changes Everything
Monday is not a normal trading day — it is the February monthly expiry for Bank Nifty futures and options, fundamentally altering how the index will behave compared to typical Monday sessions.
Three Forces Will Dominate Price Action:
1. Extreme Theta Decay (Time Decay)
With expiry on Tuesday (February 24 is the last trading day before settlement), option premiums will decay at an accelerated rate throughout Monday. This creates:
- Sellers’ Advantage: Option sellers collect maximum time decay in final 24 hours
- Buyers’ Disadvantage: Long option positions lose value rapidly even if index moves sideways
- Volatility Compression: Implied volatility typically collapses on expiry day as uncertainty resolves
What This Means: Bank Nifty will likely trade in a tight range for most of the day (60,800-61,400) before a potential breakout move in the final 1-2 hours as positions get squared off.
2. Max Pain Theory
Max pain refers to the strike price where maximum option writers (sellers) profit and maximum option buyers lose. According to option chain data, Bank Nifty’s max pain sits near 61,000-61,100 range.
Market maker theory suggests the index gravitates toward max pain during expiry as big players (option writers) defend their sold positions by buying/selling futures to pin the index at profitable levels.
Expected Behavior:
- If Bank Nifty opens above 61,300: Expect selling pressure pulling it toward 61,000-61,100
- If Bank Nifty opens below 60,900: Expect buying support pushing it toward 61,000-61,100
- Range: 60,800-61,400 most of the day with pin near 61,000
3. Rollover Activity
Traders holding February futures/options must either:
- Close positions before expiry (creates buying/selling pressure)
- Rollover to March contracts (creates basis spread volatility)
- Take physical delivery (rare for Bank Nifty index)
Heavy rollover activity in the last hour (2:30-3:30 PM) can cause sharp, unpredictable moves as large positions get adjusted.
Bank Nifty Monday Technical Levels: Support, Resistance & Trading Zones
Technical traders and algorithms will respect specific price levels on Monday based on Friday’s close at 61,172 and historical support/resistance zones.
| Level Type | Price Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Resistance | 61,700 – 61,764 | All-time high supply zone |
| Key Resistance | 61,400 – 61,500 | Multiple rejection zone |
| Minor Resistance | 61,300 | Psychological level |
| Pivot | 61,003.75 | Central pivot for Monday |
| Current Position | 61,172 | Friday close |
| Minor Support | 61,000 | Max pain zone |
| Key Support | 60,800 – 60,900 | Friday low region |
| Strong Support | 60,380 – 60,500 | 20-day EMA + demand zone |
| Critical Support | 60,000 | Psychological level |
| Breakdown Level | 59,800 | Below this = bearish |
Detailed Level Analysis:
Resistance Zone 1: 61,300-61,400 Friday’s intraday high near 61,300 will act as first hurdle. If Bank Nifty opens above 61,200 and sustains through 11:00 AM, a test of 61,400 is likely. However, selling pressure intensifies here as call writers defend 61,500 strike.
Resistance Zone 2: 61,400-61,700 This is the “supply wall” where Bank Nifty has failed multiple times in recent sessions to break toward new all-time highs above 61,764.85. Unless a major catalyst emerges (RBI policy surprise, government reform announcement), breaking above 61,400 on expiry day is low probability.
Support Zone 1: 60,800-61,000 Friday’s recovery low near 60,850 and max pain zone at 61,000 create a demand area. Any dip into this zone during Monday morning session will likely attract buying as put sellers defend their positions and bargain hunters emerge.
Support Zone 2: 60,380-60,500 The 20-day EMA currently sits at 60,380-60,400 — a technical level that held perfectly on Friday. This is also where institutional buyers (DIIs, mutual funds) are likely defending long positions. Breaking below 60,380 on a closing basis would signal technical breakdown and invite 59,800-60,000 retest.
Critical Level: 60,000 The psychological 60,000 mark is the line in the sand. Sustained break below this level changes Bank Nifty from “consolidation” to “correction” mode, opening the door to 59,400-59,600 next support zone.
Three Trading Scenarios for Bank Nifty Monday
Scenario 1: Range-Bound Expiry (70% Probability)
Opening: 61,100-61,250 (flat to slight gap-up) Move: Trades within 60,850-61,400 range for most of the day Drivers: Theta decay keeps buyers and sellers cautious, max pain magnetism pulls toward 61,000 Closing: 60,950-61,150 (near Friday close)
Trading Strategy:
- Avoid directional bets — range-bound expiry days destroy option buyers
- Option selling: Sell 60,800 put and 61,500 call for premium collection (only for experienced traders with margin)
- Futures: Stay out or trade only intraday scalps with tight 50-point stops
- Stocks: Focus on individual banking stocks showing relative strength (SBI, BOB) rather than index
Scenario 2: Upside Breakout (20% Probability)
Opening: 61,250-61,350 (gap-up) Move: Sustains above 61,300 in first hour, tests 61,500-61,700 by afternoon Drivers: PSU banks continue Friday’s momentum, FII buying returns, positive global cues Closing: 61,400-61,600
Trading Strategy:
- Wait for confirmation: Don’t chase opening gap — wait for 10:30 AM to confirm breakout is holding
- Buy above 61,350: Enter longs if Bank Nifty trades above 61,350 for 30+ minutes with volume
- Target: 61,550-61,700
- Stop-loss: 61,150 (below Friday close)
- Stocks to buy: SBI, Bank of Baroda, PNB (PSU banks leading)
Scenario 3: Downside Breakdown (10% Probability)
Opening: 60,900-61,050 (flat to slight gap-down) Move: Fails to hold 61,000, breaks 60,800 support by midday, tests 60,380-60,500 Drivers: Private banks weak, FII selling intensifies, global risk-off returns Closing: 60,400-60,700
Trading Strategy:
- Sell below 60,900: If opening is weak and Bank Nifty trades below 60,900 by 10:00 AM, downside bias confirmed
- Target: 60,500 first, then 60,300 if momentum continues
- Stop-loss: 61,100 (above Friday close)
- Stocks to avoid: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank (already weak) — sell rallies
Gift Nifty, Global Cues & Monday Opening Expectations
Gift Nifty (Singapore Nifty Futures): Weekend trading in Gift Nifty will provide the first indication of Monday’s opening direction. As of Friday close:
- Nifty traded at 25,571 (closed Friday)
- Bank Nifty closed at 61,172
- Gift Nifty typically trades slightly premium to cash during weekends
Global Cues:
- US Markets (Friday): S&P 500 +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.05% — moderately positive
- Asian Markets: Will be key on Monday morning — watch Nikkei, Hang Seng opening
- Crude Oil: Elevated near recent highs — negative for Indian banking (higher inflation = RBI policy concerns)
- US-Iran Tensions: Any weekend escalation would trigger risk-off, negative for banks
- Dollar-Rupee: Rupee at 90.57, weakness pressuring bank NPAs and FX margins
Expected Monday Opening: Based on Friday’s strong close and positive US markets, Bank Nifty likely opens:
- Base case: Flat to +50 points (61,200-61,250 range)
- Bullish case: +100-150 points (61,270-61,320) if Gift Nifty strong
- Bearish case: -50 to -100 points (61,070-61,120) if Asian markets weak
Banking Stocks to Watch Monday: Sectoral Divergence Continues
The individual stock performance within Bank Nifty will vary dramatically based on PSU versus private bank dichotomy.
PSU Banks — Relative Strength (Likely Outperformers):
| Stock | Friday Close | Key Level | Monday Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBI | ₹1,206-1,216 | Support ₹1,180 | Positive — near ATH |
| Bank of Baroda | Strong Friday | Watch for follow-through | Positive |
| Punjab National Bank | Recovery mode | Key resistance ahead | Neutral to positive |
| Canara Bank | FII buying visible | Momentum building | Positive |
Why PSU Banks Strong: Foreign institutional investors rotating from expensive private banks (HDFC Bank 19x P/E) to value PSU banks (SBI 14x P/E), government infrastructure spending benefits PSU loan books, asset quality at decade-best levels.
Private Banks — Under Pressure (Likely Laggards):
| Stock | Friday Close | Key Level | Monday Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| HDFC Bank | Under ₹1,575 | Support ₹1,550 | Weak — FII selling |
| ICICI Bank | Struggling | Deposit growth concerns | Neutral to negative |
| Kotak Mahindra | Weak | Management transition | Avoid |
| Axis Bank | Mixed signals | Wait for clarity | Neutral |
Why Private Banks Weak: Deposit growth lagging credit growth (funding pressure), premium valuations offering no margin of safety, FII selling accelerating as ₹13,000+ crore pulled out in February 2026.
Monday Strategy:
- Go long: PSU banks (SBI, BOB) if Bank Nifty holds above 61,000
- Avoid/Sell: Private banks (HDFC, ICICI) unless oversold bounce opportunity
- Hedge: Buy puts on private banks if shorting, as individual stock volatility extreme
Key Takeaways for Bank Nifty Monday February 24, 2026
→ Bank Nifty at 61,172 enters Monday expiry day after recovering 432 points Friday — positioned between critical support 60,380-60,500 (20-day EMA) and resistance 61,400-61,700 (all-time high supply zone at 61,764.85).
→ Expiry day dynamics dominate — extreme theta decay, max pain magnetism near 61,000-61,100, and rollover activity in final hour create high-volatility compression trading environment where range-bound movement most probable outcome.
→ Three scenarios: (1) Range 60,850-61,400 most likely (70% probability), (2) Breakout above 61,400 targeting 61,700 if PSU banks extend rally (20%), (3) Breakdown below 60,800 testing 60,380 support if private banks collapse (10%).
→ PSU banks showing relative strength — SBI near all-time high, Bank of Baroda and PNB leading Friday recovery — while private banks HDFC/ICICI face FII selling pressure, deposit growth concerns, and premium valuation resistance.
→ Gift Nifty weekend levels and Asian market opening Monday morning will set directional tone — Friday’s positive US close (S&P +0.62%, Nasdaq +1.05%) suggests base case flat to +50 point opening near 61,200-61,250.
→ Trading strategy for Monday: Avoid directional option buying (theta decay destroys premium), focus on individual PSU bank stocks over index trades, wait for 10:30 AM confirmation before entering positions, use tight stops as expiry volatility unpredictable.
→ Key levels to watch: Above 61,350 for 30+ minutes = bullish breakout toward 61,550-61,700; below 60,900 by 10 AM = bearish breakdown toward 60,500; range 60,850-61,400 = max pain expiry consolidation.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. All trading decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance and with proper position sizing.
Data sourced from publicly available information as of February 20-21, 2026. Sources include: NSE India, BSE India, Choice FinX, Replete Equities, Enrich Money, various technical analysts, option chain data as of Friday close.
